Major Korean news media have recently published their estimates of the results of the general elections slated for April 13, 2016. They varied from one another although not very substantially. They figures were 150 seats for the ruling Saenuri Party, 110 seats for the Minjoo Party and 40 seats for the minority People’s Party. The reports had no figures for the progressive Justice Party and it was immediately known if it meant that it had no prospect of winning any seat at all or they had just not been able to collect the final data.
Earlier on April 3, all major media published common figures. They stated that Saenuri was strong in a total of 83 constituencies, the Minjoo Party in 35 districts, the People’s Party in 20 districts and the splinter Justice Party in two districts.
According to the result of a survey published by the Real Meter on based on its investigations conducted on March 31-April 2, 2016 consulting the voters in the Yongsan District in Seoul, Saenuri Candidate Hwang Chun-ja and Minjoo Party Candidate Chin Young had only one point difference?Hwang winning 32.1% and Chin collecting 32%.
There are a number of other districts, too, where the completion is really keen among the rival party candidates.
Another close-contest district is Mapo Eul District in Seoul, where Saenuri Candidate Kim Seong-don won 29.9% which is slightly higher than 22.9% collected by the Minjoo Party Candidate Sohn Hye-won.
In Seoul and the surrounding areas of the Capital Zone, where there are a total of 122 seats to be won, 40 seats are expected to be taken away by the political party candidates. However, in the remaining 80 districts, competition among the different candidates is really keen and it is difficult to make any accurate forecast due to the extremely slim margin.
Chairman Kim Moo-sung of the ruling Saenuri Party said in Incheon on April 2 that his party needed at least 180 seats but that the Party might end up winning less than one-half of the total number of seats.
The Minjoo Party, too, does not appear to be very optimistic about its prospect of winning. Minjoo representatives say that they are confident in winning one half majority in Seoul and surrounding areas of the Capital Zone. However, inwardly the party leaders are worried that in more than 50 constituencies the difference between the ruling Saenuri and major opposition Minjoo parties is within five points. Minjoo seeks to win a total of over 110 seats, but at present the party is strong only in 35 constituencies in Seoul and the surrounding areas of the Capital Zone.
In the case of the People’s Party, the targeted number of seats are 40. The party is not sure if it can win that many seats but that it believes it could get more than 20 from the Jeolla Provinces, eight seats from Seoul and the Chungcheong provinces and Seoul and the surrounding areas. Also, the People’s Party expects to get 10 additional seats under the Proportional Representation System--bringing the total number of its parliamentary seats to 40.
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